What is Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

When gathering Intelligence, there’s usually more than a number of avenues can go down. And to assist you in deciding the best path, we recommend a tool called Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. But what is Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)?

Competitor analysis: The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

The tool was created by the CIA, in the 1970s to reduce errors within it’s analysis. ACH is a proven and effective 7 step tool to tests all the options open to you. And then judge which is your best path to take.

Step 1

Collect the information surrounding the problem. And start to think about what is going on.  Also, what you are going to do about it. So list all the things that could be going on. And no silly answers excluded or criticised.

Step 2

Then find the evidence, assumptions and deductions for and against each theory found in Step 1.

Step 3

Next, put the theories where you have found evidence into a matrix.  So you can compare and contrast with each one. Try and disprove each hypothesis. Each hypothesis is then given a number to rank them between -2 and 2. To test the evidence, assumptions and deductions against the hypothesis. So, the higher the number, the more likely that evidence supports your theory.

Deductions – The process of reaching the answer by thinking about known facts.

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