The Future You’re Not Preparing For
Most people try to predict what will happen next, but it’s smarter to prepare for several possible outcomes.
“The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.”
— William Gibson
Your intelligence team spent six weeks looking into where your competitor may go next. They agreed the questions and they put together a detailed report, studied the market, looked at trends, isolated blind spots and and made a strategic forecast. They were confident your competitor would move upmarket, so you prepared for that. You strengthened your relationships with big clients, added features for larger deals, and hired experienced enterprise salespeople.
But your competitor doesn’t move upmarket. Instead, they go after smaller customers. All your careful planning was focused on the wrong outcome.
How much of your competitive strategy is based on predicting one future when you should be preparing for multiple possible futures?
Most companies use research to predict one future. They study competitors and decide, “They will do X.” If they guess right, their plan works. But if they’re wrong, which happens often, they waste resources and aren’t ready for what actually happens.
The Prediction Confidence Problem
Doing all this analysis makes you feel confident about your predictions. You’ve looked at the data, spotted patterns, talked to sources, and drawn conclusions. Now you feel confident about what your competitors will do. Confidence is dangerous.
Confidence can make you focus too narrowly. You get ready for the future you expect and ignore other options. You put resources into defending against one threat and can’t shift quickly if something else comes up.
The companies that last are the ones that stay open to uncertainty. They don’t just bet on one future. They get ready for several possibilities.
When Prediction Fails
Predictions often fail because there are too many moving parts. Competitor leadership can change, markets shift, technology advances, customer tastes change, rules get updated, and funding goes up and down.
Any of these changes can throw off your prediction. Often, several happen at once. By the time you expect your prediction to come true, things have already gone in a different direction. There is also the massive assumption that your competitor knows what they are doing, thinks strategically, and doesn’t exist day-to-day.
But by then, you’ve already put resources into defending against what you thought would happen. You can’t shift quickly because you didn’t plan for flexibility. You prepared for certainty, not surprises.
The Scenario Planning Alternative
Smart teams don’t just make predictions. They plan for different scenarios. Instead of saying, “They will do X,” they ask, “If X happens, we do Y. If Z happens, we do W. If A happens, we do B.”
Scenario planning accepts uncertainty. It doesn’t pretend to know what will happen. Instead, it helps you get ready for several possible outcomes.
Maybe your competitor moves upmarket—so you prepare for that. Maybe they go after smaller customers—so you get ready for that too. They could even switch to a new market or get acquired, so you plan for those changes as well.
You’re not trying to guess which one will happen. You’re getting ready for any of them.
The Resource Flexibility Requirement
Getting ready for different futures means your organisation needs to be flexible. You can’t put all your resources into just one plan. You need to keep some in reserve so you can shift when things change.
Most put their resources into what they think will happen. If they’re wrong, they have nothing left to deal with what really happens.
Smarter companies put about 70% of their resources toward the most likely future and keep 30% flexible. If their guess is right, they’re ready. If not, they can adjust quickly.
The Early Signal Detection
Scenarios work when paired with early signal detection. You’re not waiting for your predicted future to confirm or disprove itself. You’re monitoring for signals that indicate which future is actually unfolding.
Your competitor starts hiring downmarket salespeople. That’s a signal they could be attacking downmarket instead of upmarket. You adjust resource assignment immediately. You’re not waiting for quarterly results to confirm the shift.
You’re watching for signals. When signals indicate a different future is unfolding, you respond before it’s too late.
The Preparation Problem
Most companies don’t prepare for scenarios they don’t predict. If they’ve concluded a competitor will do X, they don’t prepare for the competitor doing Y. Why waste resources preparing for something they’ve decided won’t happen?
But that thinking is flawed. Getting ready for unlikely scenarios is like buying insurance. It’s cheap if you include it in your first plan, but it gets expensive if you have to scramble after your prediction turns out wrong.
Building Scenario Discipline
Scenario planning takes discipline. You list out possible futures for your competitors, assign probabilities instead of certainties, and come up with responses for each one. You also identify early signs for each scenario and keep an eye on them constantly.
That way, you’re not just making predictions. You’re always ready.
A Question to Consider
“If your top prediction about what a competitor will do next is completely wrong, how quickly could you reallocate resources to respond to what they actually did?”
Practical Advice
This quarter, make three plans for each major competitor. Scenario 1 is the most likely future based on what you see now. Scenario 2 is a different future that could happen but would be a surprise. Scenario 3 is a big change that would catch everyone off guard. For each one, decide how you’ll respond. You’re not guessing which will happen—you’re getting ready for all three. When you see the first signs, you’ll know which scenario is starting and you’ll be ready.
Figure out early warning signs for each scenario. What would show you that Scenario 2 is happening instead of Scenario 1? What would point to Scenario 3? Make a list of clear, specific signals and watch for them. This helps you know when to shift resources from one plan to another. Don’t wait for full confirmation—act as soon as you see the early signs.
Set aside 20-30% of your strategic resources so you can stay flexible. Don’t put everything into your main prediction. Keep some in reserve so you can modify if things change. It could cost a bit in the short term since you’re not fully focused on the most likely outcome, but it can save you a lot in the long run if your prediction is off. That insurance is worth it.
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