The Evidence You Would Have to Accept
Ask yourself a question before your next planning meeting. What would have to happen for you to abandon the position you are about to defend?
If you cannot answer, you are not really analysing. You are just making your case with better words. This is not about honesty. It describes how even skilled people can fail. The better your reasoning, the easier it is to explain away evidence you do not like, because you have more ways to justify it.
“It is the peculiar and perpetual error of the human understanding to be more moved and excited by affirmatives than by negatives.” – Francis Bacon
Conviction Looks Identical to Analysis From the Inside
An experienced executive and a persistent one can sound the same. Both use evidence, both have seen similar situations before, and both speak with confidence. Whether either one has stated, in advance, what would change their mind. Saying it in advance is the key. Once new evidence appears, people tend to see what they want. Beforehand, you can still be fair to a conclusion you might not like.
Where the Habit Actually Forms
This is not a skill you pick up only in high-pressure boardroom meetings. It develops in small decisions where the outcome does not matter much. about. The supplier you kept because switching was tedious. The product feature you defended in three consecutive reviews. Nobody wrote down what would have counted as being wrong, so nobody was ever wrong. The decision persisted.
Organisations pick up this habit. If people never say what evidence would prove them wrong, the company ends up with direct and indirect competitor monitoring that never finds anything inconvenient, because no one defined what that would be.
You do not need a complicated process for this. You just need to write one sentence before making the decision.
“I will revisit this if X happens.”
X must be something you can observe. For example, not ‘if the market moves,’ but ‘if two of our top ten accounts renew at lower volumes.’ Vague thresholds are never crossed, which is why people use them.
The second step is to write it down somewhere you will see it again. Memory is not reliable and will often tell you that you always had doubts.
What This Costs You
To be honest, it costs you a bit of comfort.
Sometimes, you will need to revisit decisions you made. No matter how confident you were. You might seem less certain in meetings than colleagues who never set clear thresholds. This is a real cost, but it is worth it. The alternative is a company that only changes direction when the evidence is overwhelming, which usually means competitive advantage often comes down to who adapts first. To do that, you need to decide in advance what will count as evidence.
A Question to Consider
For the strategic position you defend most often, what specific and observable event would make you abandon it, and have you ever said so out loud?
Practical Advice
Before your next big decision, write a sentence naming the specific event that would make you reconsider it. Add a date and keep it somewhere you will see it again.
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Key Takeaways
- To improve decision-making, clarify what evidence would make you change your mind before defending a position.
- Conviction and analysis can sound alike, making it crucial to state your criteria for changing your stance in advance.
- Small decisions often shape the habit of not defining what constitutes wrong evidence, leading to poor organisational practices.
- Writing down observable events that would prompt you to revisit decisions helps ensure accountability and clarity.
- Admitting you could be wrong might cost you comfort, but it is essential for adaptability and competitive advantage.
- The Action Gap
